Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Will Win Super Bowl LV

It’s that time of the year again, Super Bowl weekend! On Sunday, people who adore football, and even people who don’t care, will all get together to watch the best of the best go at it.  Some people will only be watching for the commercials and the halftime show, headlined by The Weekend. There will be a lot of gambling. Some people are gambling on the Gatorade’s color, which will be dropped onto the winning coach. Others will be betting on which side the coin is going to land on. But most of all, people are going to be betting on who is going to win the Superbowl. This year, it will be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs going head to head. If you are here for the short answer, I believe that the Buccaneers will win the Superbowl. 

Why you may ask? 

Let me explain…

First, I would like to go through the statistics. On average per game, the Chiefs scored 29.6 points. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers scored 30.7 points. The Chiefs allowed 22.4 points per game, while the Buccaneers allowed 22.3 points per game. The playoff statistics look relatively similar, as the Chiefs scored 30 points on average throughout their last two games. 

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers scored 30.7 average points over the last three games they played. The Brady led Buccaneers offense ranked 7th in the NFL, while the Mahomes led Chiefs offense ranked 1st. On the flip side, the Jason Piere-Paul led Buccaneers defense ranked 6th, while the Tyran Mathieu-led Chiefs defense ranked a mere 17th. (All rankings were taken from ESPN). Now it’s clear that the Chiefs Achilles heel is their defense. But, if we are to look back at the last Superbowl, for the Chiefs, the defense does not win Championships, Patrick Mahomes does. The Chiefs defense ranked 17th last year, while the 49ers offense ranked 4th. The Chiefs offense ranked 6th, while the 49ers defense ranked 2nd. So, one cannot judge who is going to win the Superbowl only off of past statistics. However, on paper, it seems that the Buccaneers would win. 

Recall that the Chiefs beat the Buccaneers in Week 12, 27-24. The Mahomes-based offense ripped the Buccaneers defense for 462 passing yards and three touchdowns, and their defense held the Buccaneer’s offense to a mere 10 points until the 4th quarter. Yet, both teams have gotten progressively better since then. The Buccaneers star defensive linemen, Vita Vea, was out during that game, but he will be active and healthy on Sunday. The Buccaneers have an insanely good rush defense, but who needs to run the ball when you have Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill?

The past is the past; let’s go over the injury report. For the Buccaneers, JPP, Lavonte David, Jordan Whitehead, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonioe Winfield Jr, were all limited to a certain degree during practices this week. Antonio Brown and Cameron Brate are both questionable to play, but they looked good recently. For the Chiefs, no players are questionable to play. However, Left Tackle Erik Fischer suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago; thus, he will not be playing. This is a massive blow to the Chiefs Offense. Expect them to run the ball less and for Patrick Mahomes to be scrambling a lot more. The loss of Fisher could be the Achilles heel for the Chiefs. On the right side, however, the Chiefs are getting back Le’veon Bell and will most likely get back Sammy Watkins. 

Out of 107 analysts, 80 of them predict the Chiefs will win. My prediction is going against most analysts, but I believe that I am right for the following reasons. 

The Buccaneers have started to run the ball better. If they can continue to run the ball during the game, they can call many play-action routes. Tom Brady thrives underplay actions; thus, the Buccaneers offense will be churning out points as nobody has seen before. Another problem for the Chiefs defense is covering Rob Gronkowski. With Antonio Brown’s return,  the Buccaneers can have Gronkowski, Brown, Godwin, Evans, and Miller all on the field at once. If the Chiefs do not double cover Evans and Godwin, then Brady will pass to them. If the Chiefs cover all the Wide Receivers well with their Cornerbacks and Safeties, Brady will pass to Gronkowski. Gronkowski may not be in his prime, but the Chiefs cannot merely place a Linebacker on him. On the flip side, the Chiefs offense will struggle, as the Buccaneers’ defense is the best against the run game. 

The Chiefs were only able to run the ball for 87 yards against the Buccaneers last time, and that was without Vita Vea. At the same time, Eric Fisher was playing. In the playoffs, if a team cannot run the ball, they will struggle. The Buccaneers defense will most likely play zone coverage or rush five people, forcing Mahomes to scramble. Now, one cannot count out Mahomes, as he is a beast in all aspects of the game, but I do not see the Chiefs being able to overcome these obstacles against the Buccaneers. If the Chiefs can control the Buccaneers defensive line and the Chiefs’ secondary steps up as it did during Week 12, the Chiefs will win. But the chances of all of those things falling in line are meager.